How To Trade This Event Risk

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely anticipated to hold the cash rate steady at the 49-year low of 3.00% for the third consecutive month in July as policymakers anticipate an economic recovery later this year, and long-term expectations for higher borrowing costs may continue to drive AUD/USD higher over the near-term. At the same time, the RBA held a cautious tone at the June policy meeting, saying that the appreciation in the exchange rate has “reduced the stimulus to the economy.” which the bank associates with “changes in sentiment toward the U.S. dollar and risk appetite more generally, rather than any specific reassessment about Australia’s economic prospects.” The 1Q GDP reading showed economic activity unexpectedly expanded in the first quarter, with the growth rate rising at an annual rate of 0.4%, and the data encourages an improved outlook for the region as the government takes unprecedented steps to stimulate the $1T economy. Moreover, consumer inflation expectations rose for the third consecutive month in June, while consumer confidence surged 12.7% during the same period to mark the biggest advance in 22-years, and the turnaround in the domestic economy could lead the central bank to hold an enhanced outlook for the region as growth prospects improve. However, a government report showed the trade deficit widened to A$ 556M in May, driven by a 5.0% drop in exports, while full-time employment fell 26.2K in during the same period as businesses continued to scale back on production and employment in an effort to whether the downturn in global trade. Meanwhile, as the government pledges A$12B in public handouts and plans to spend A$22B on infrastructure development, a Bloomberg News survey shows all of the 20 economists polled forecast the RBA to hold the benchmark interest rate at 3.00%, and the central bank may keep on the sidelines throughout the second half of the year as the fiscal measures trickle through the real economy. As a result, the AUD/USD may continue to push higher as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach however, statements following the rate decision could weigh on the exchange rate as Governor Glenn Stevens maintains a dovish outlook for future policy.

Trading the given event risk may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trade but nevertheless, as market participants anticipate the RBA to hold borrowing costs steady over the near-term, price action following the announcement could set the stage for a long aussie trade. Therefore, if the central bank keeps the cash rate at 3.00% and holds an improved outlook for growth and inflation, we will look for a green, five-minute candle following the decision to confirm a buy entry on two-lots of AUD/USD. Once these conditions are met, we will set our initial stop at the nearby swing low, or a reasonable distance taking volatility into account, and this risk will establish our first target. Our second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its target in order to preserve our profits.

In contrast, fears of a protracted recession paired with the slump in global trade could lead the central bank to hold a dovish tone going forward, and comments indicative of a future rate cut should lead the exchange rate lower as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. As a result, if the RBA leaves the door open for a potential rate cut later this year and holds a dour outlook for future growth, we will favor a bearish forecast for the higher-yielding currency, and will follow the same strategy for a short aussie-dollar trade as the long position mentioned above, just in reverse.

June 2009 RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest unchanged at 3.00% for the second consecutive month in June, but continued to hold a dovish outlook for future policy as price growth falters. The RBA minutes said that the current policy in place ‘would be consistent with fostering sustainable growth and low inflation,’ but continued to see scope for ‘some further easing’ as the outlook for global growth remains weak. However, as the government pledges A$12B in public handouts and plans to spend A$22B on infrastructure, the board may continue to neutral policy stance going forward as the government takes unprecedented steps to stimulate the ailing economy. As a result, long-term expectations for higher borrowing costs may continue to drive demands for the Australian dollar but at the same time, the appreciation in the exchange rate could hamper the prospects for a recovery as trade conditions falter.

May 2009 RBA Rate Decision

The Australian central bank held official cash rate at the 49-year low of 3.00% as expected, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may hold the interest rate steady over the near-term as they adopt a wait-and-see approach. The board minutes of the May meeting showed that the board expects the $1T economy to ‘record better outcomes than most other advanced economies in 2009 and 2010,’ and went onto say ‘that there were signs that the economic stimulus that had been applied was supporting demand.’ Moreover, RBA Governor Stevens continues to hold an improved outlook for future growth, and said that a ‘recovery will get underway toward the end of the year’ amid expectations for a 1.25% drop in the annual growth rate. At the same time, the board said that they expect ‘higher unemployment and falling inflation, though the earlier depreciation of the exchange rate would slow the decline in prices for some time.’

What To Look For Before The Release
Traders with access to market depth information via the FXCM Active Trader Platform may use it to gauge the potency of the economic data release as well as to shed some light on the market’s directional bias. Increasing volume ahead of the announcement will telegraph likely follow-through behind whatever move is to materialize, while an imbalance in available liquidity on the Bid versus the Offer side of the market will tell us the direction major institutions are likely favoring ahead of the announcement:

Australian dollar volatility looks likely in the week ahead the currency is pulled in opposing directions by an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a building downward reversal in risk appetite across financial markets. Risky assets look increasingly likely to reverse lower: relative to earnings, the MSCI World Stock Index ended June trading at the highest level since August 2004. In real terms, the world economy grew at an average pace of 4.1% that year, whereas virtually every credible forecasting outlet including the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and assorted central banks all call for global GDP to shrink this year. This suggests stock markets are highly overvalued, pointing to a forthcoming correction downward as the euphoria that began in March subsides. Technical positioning suggests this may happen sooner rather than later, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing a well-defined Head-and-Shoulders topping formation. A trade-weighted index tracking the Australian Dollar’s average value against top global currencies is now 95.4% correlated with the Dow and 98.2% correlated with the broader MSCI metric (using a 90-day rolling correlation), suggesting that any major selloff in risky assets put tremendous downward pressure on the Aussie.

On the other side of the coin, the Reserve Bank of Australia may offer support to the larger antipodean currency as Glenn Stevens and company keep interest rates unchanged at 3% for the third consecutive month. Economic data has been coming in relatively better in recent weeks and a handful of upside surprises in Chinese manufacturing statistics will allow the RBA to once again repeat a familiar mantra of a forthcoming rebound in export demand as well as confidence in the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that have already been put in place. While none of this is generally false, the real question going forward is whether the economy can maintain momentum after the flow of government cash dries up. The RBA knows this, and has been keen about dropping hints of potential further easing in the months ahead if such actions are deemed necessary. As has been shrewdly pointed out by Bill Evans, chief economist of Australian bank giant Westpac, interest rate reductions have a confidence-boosting quality and the RBA may be making a strategic decision to hold off on easing for now to get the most bang for their buck when the economy begins to markedly deteriorate again. In any case, a “no-change” outcome this time around may offer near-term support to the Aussie, helping to cushion (if only temporarily) some of the damage from a reversal in risky assets.

Elsewhere on the economic calendar, Westpac Consumer Confidence and Consumer Inflation Expectations figures may tick higher on the aforementioned boost from the government’s actions, but the releases are unlikely to stir much of a positive response considering the forces behind them have had ample time to be priced into the exchange rate and given a backdrop of rising unemployment. Indeed, the economy is expected to shed 20k jobs in June, sending the unemployment rate to a 6-year high at 5.9%. Investment lending is likely to fall in May considering private sector credit fell at the fastest pace in over 15 years during the same period. – IS

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insurance works.

Let go of thinking “buyer-seller,” and view the person you’re calling as another person, not as a “prospect.” The traditional cold calling mindset teaches us to polarize our roles. We’re trying to sell something, and we aren’t seeing the whole picture which includes the other person’s thinking.

The old cold calling approach has become so artificial that potential clients put up their guards almost immediately. It’s denigrated the sales process into a painful “push and pull” process.

Shift your mindset into seeing your potential clients as people first. This will help you relate to them better. And the broader picture will allow you find out whether your product or service can be of help to them without being pushy or artificial.

The moment you use the old-school cold calling approach — the traditional pitch about who you are and what you have to offer — you trigger the negative “salesperson” stereotype. And that means instant defense or rejection. I call it “The Wall.”

The problem is with how you’re selling, not what you’re selling. When we start cold calling by talking about what we have to offer, we’re “pitching” ourselves instead of focusing on the other person. Our voice and demeanor is full of expectation. And this creates sales pressure — which triggers resistance.

So overcome the temptation to immediately discuss what you have to offer. Instead, help the other person overcome the fear of who you are and what is expected. Potential clients are much more likely to respond to you when they aren’t subjected to an immediate mini-presentation. This approach usually just creates suspicion and rejection.

Allow the conversation to have a natural sense of rhythm. Define mutual interest before launching into a description of your solution to a problem you probably know very little about at this point. Start by focusing on a specific problem you think your potential client is facing. Once you focus on a specific problem, they’ll probably reply, “Well, who is this?” or “Who am I talking to?”

Notice that you’ve gotten rid of the usual initial pressure and tension that starts with a cold calling sales pitch. Instead, the two of you are embarking on a dialogue. Don’t be surprised by their question. The other person simply wants to know who you are. And, implicitly, he or she is also expressing curiosity about your intentions.

If you know your industry well enough and the problem you suggest is very real for the people you call, they will often start to relax and enter into a further dialogue with you.

How many times have you started a cold call and the prospect closes up on you. The sales pitch at the beginning of your cold call blocks the natural flow of conversation. When you’re giving a sales pitch, you’re talking about what you have to offer before the other person feels any sense of connection with you. You’re in that old dehumanizing “push-pull” scenario of cold calling.

When you introduce yourself with a sales pitch, you really don’t know at that point if the prospect has issues you might help them solve. You see, you’ve gotten so deep into the flow of offering your solution that you’ve lost sight of the new cold calling mindset, which is to discover the truth about any prospect’s situation.

So avoid the traditional sales pitch altogether. Talk about the other person and what’s important to him or her. Answer questions about what you have to offer in a relaxed, natural way. When you do this, you’ll be amazed at how easily cold calling becomes a journey of discovery.

How is breast cancer diagnosed?
During a regular physical exam, your doctor can check your breasts to look for lumps or changes. Depending on your age and risk factors, the doctor may advise you to have a mammogram, which is an X-ray of the breast. A mammogram can often find a lump that is too small to be felt. Sometimes a woman finds a lump during a breast self-exam.

If you or your doctor finds a lump or other change, the doctor will want to take a sample of the cells in your breast. This is called a biopsy. Sometimes the doctor will put a needle into the lump to take out some fluid or tissue (needle biopsy). In other cases, a surgeon may take out the whole lump through a small cut in your breast. The results of the biopsy help your doctor know if you have cancer and what type of cancer it is.

You may have other tests to find out the stage of the cancer. The stage is a way for doctors to describe how far the cancer has spread. Your treatment choices will be based partly on the type and stage of the cancer.

How is it treated?
Most people who have breast cancer have surgery to remove the cancer. The surgeon may also take out some or all of the lymph nodes under your arm to find out if the cancer has spread to this area. After surgery, you may have radiation therapy to destroy cancer cells. You may also get chemotherapy or hormone therapy. These are powerful medicines that travel through your body to kill cancer cells. You might have radiation, chemotherapy, or hormone therapy before surgery to help shrink the cancer.

Depending on the stage of your cancer, you may have a choice of:

Surgery to remove just the cancer from the breast (breast-conserving surgery, or lumpectomy). You will need to have several weeks of radiation after surgery.
Surgery to remove the breast (mastectomy). If you choose mastectomy, you can have an operation to make a new breast. This is called breast reconstruction. Sometimes radiation is not needed after a mastectomy.
In years past, having breast cancer meant that you would have to have your breast removed. In many cases, this is no longer true. Studies now show that for early-stage breast cancer, breast-conserving surgery followed by radiation therapy is as good as mastectomy.1

You and your doctor will decide which mix of treatments is right for you based on many factors. These include facts about your cancer as well as your family history, other health problems, and your feelings about keeping your breast. Learn all you can about breast cancer and its treatment so you can make the choices that are right for you.

Treatments for breast cancer can cause side effects. Your doctor can let you know what problems to expect and help you find ways to manage them.

Finding out that you have breast cancer can cause a range of feelings, from sadness and fear to anger and despair. If your emotions are making it hard for you to move ahead, be sure to tell your doctor. You may be able to get counseling or find a support group. Talking with other people who have faced the same choices can be a big help.

Can breast cancer be prevented?
You cannot control some things that put you at risk for breast cancer, such as your sex and age. But you can change others. To stay as healthy as you can:

Eat a healthy diet with lots of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains.
Be active. Try to get 30 minutes of exercise at least 5 days a week.
Stay at a healthy weight. Getting regular exercise and watching what you eat can help.
If you drink alcohol, limit the amount. After menopause, even having one drink a day or less may increase the risk for breast cancer.
Still, there is no sure way to prevent breast cancer, so it is very important to have regular exams and mammograms. Discuss your risk factors with your doctor to find out how often you should have a mammogram.

If you have a strong family history of breast cancer, ask your doctor about genetic testing. A blood test can check for changes in the BRCA genes that may increase your chance of getting breast cancer

1. Dress Sharp

Although clothes don’t make the man, they certainly affect the way he feels about himself. No one is more conscious of your physical appearance than you are. When you don’t look good, it changes the way you carry yourself and interact with other people. Use this to your advantage by taking care of your personal appearance. In most cases, significant improvements can be made by bathing and shaving frequently, wearing clean clothes, and being cognizant of the latest styles.

This doesn’t mean you need to spend a lot on clothes. One great rule to follow is “spend twice as much, buy half as much”. Rather than buying a bunch of cheap clothes, buy half as many select, high quality items. In long run this decreases spending because expensive clothes wear out less easily and stay in style longer than cheap clothes. Buying less also helps reduce the clutter in your closet.

2. Walk Faster

One of the easiest ways to tell how a person feels about herself is to examine her walk. Is it slow? tired? painful? Or is it energetic and purposeful? People with confidence walk quickly. They have places to go, people to see, and important work to do. Even if you aren’t in a hurry, you can increase your self confidence by putting some pep in your step. Walking 25% faster will make to you look and feel more important.

3. Good Posture

Similarly, the way a person carries herself tells a story. People with slumped shoulders and lethargic movements display a lack of self confidence. They aren’t enthusiastic about what they’re doing and they don’t consider themselves important. By practicing good posture, you’ll automatically feel more confident. Stand up straight, keep your head up, and make eye contact. You’ll make a positive impression on others and instantly feel more alert and empowered.

4. Personal Commercial

One of the best ways to build confidence is listening to a motivational speech. Unfortunately, opportunities to listen to a great speaker are few and far between. You can fill this need by creating a personal commercial. Write a 30-60 second speech that highlights your strengths and goals. Then recite it in front of the mirror aloud (or inside your head if you prefer) whenever you need a confidence boost.

5. Gratitude

When you focus too much on what you want, the mind creates reasons why you can’t have it. This leads you to dwell on your weaknesses. The best way to avoid this is consciously focusing on gratitude. Set aside time each day to mentally list everything you have to be grateful for. Recall your past successes, unique skills, loving relationships, and positive momentum. You’ll be amazed how much you have going for you and motivated to take that next step towards success.

6. Compliment other people

When we think negatively about ourselves, we often project that feeling on to others in the form of insults and gossip. To break this cycle of negativity, get in the habit of praising other people. Refuse to engage in backstabbing gossip and make an effort to compliment those around you. In the process, you’ll become well liked and build self confidence. By looking for the best in others, you indirectly bring out the best in yourself.

7. Sit in the front row

In schools, offices, and public assemblies around the world, people constantly strive to sit at the back of the room. Most people prefer the back because they’re afraid of being noticed. This reflects a lack of self confidence. By deciding to sit in the front row, you can get over this irrational fear and build your self confidence. You’ll also be more visible to the important people talking from the front of the room.

8. Speak up

During group discussions many people never speak up because they’re afraid that people will judge them for saying something stupid. This fear isn’t really justified. Generally, people are much more accepting than we imagine. In fact most people are dealing with the exact same fears. By making an effort to speak up at least once in every group discussion, you’ll become a better public speaker, more confident in your own thoughts, and recognized as a leader by your peers.

9. Work out

Along the same lines as personal appearance, physical fitness has a huge effect on self confidence. If you’re out of shape, you’ll feel insecure, unattractive, and less energetic. By working out, you improve your physcial appearance, energize yourself, and accomplish something positive. Having the discipline to work out not only makes you feel better, it creates positive momentum that you can build on the rest of the day.

10. Focus on contribution

Too often we get caught up in our own desires. We focus too much on ourselves and not enough on the needs of other people. If you stop thinking about yourself and concentrate on the contribution you’re making to the rest of the world, you won’t worry as much about you own flaws. This will increase self confidence and allow you to contribute with maximum efficiency. The more you contribute to the world the more you’ll be rewarded with personal success and recognition

This is the tips  for us to stay away from falling into sick again.Download it and you will have a better understanding our human body.Stay cool and we can stay healthly every day.

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